SBC: Political Betting has certainly grown in the past few years with huge sums of money now being traded on all major markets. What do you feel is behind its newly found appeal? Paul: Political betting is relatively new. I encounter people all the time that knew nothing of it - including politicos (political aficionados). I think it attracts a different type of punter, one whom may bet on nothing else.
For me, the attraction is nuance. Unlike say football where millions have access to and can understand the basic information, politics is geared towards the expert.
I know future leadership candidate's years before many have heard of them. And, my results keep me keen as I've never lost overall on a leadership election and have had 25/1+ wins on Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Howard and Jeremy Corbyn, as well as 16/1 about David Cameron.
It seems to me that real-world betting is less luck-driven than sport – the same doubtless applies to other novelties like Sports Personality Of The Year and X Factor.
SBC: Where there is lots of information available such as in the US or UK Elections, we would expect an efficient market with very accurate prices available. What do you look for when weighing up a political betting market? Paul: The more nuanced the market, the less likely we'll see accurate odds but this can also be the case from time to time in the bigger markets.
Opening lines don't seem to be very accurate.
For example, Jeb Bush was priced at 5/4 for GOP Nomination at the start, yet is now 9/1. With multiple other favourites in the betting being overhauled so far, often the early market favourites are too short, compared to their chances.
If we look at the historical markets for the next Tory leader, in the UK, every single opening favourite in the past 50 years last lost.
Personally, I couldn't understand how Liz Kendall was the 11/4 favourite when the next Labour leader market opened in 2015. It seemed as though she was so short in the betting, because the UK newspapers (influenced by the Tory party) had hyped her so much. Anyone who know Labour supporters, know they are the direct opposite of Tory supporting newspapers, and Liz ended up with just 4% of the vote.
SBC: It's been a huge year for political betting with Brexit, Labour & Conservative leader markets and of course – the ongoing US Presidential election. How have your political betting tips fared this year and what have been the highlights? Paul: It's been the busiest year ever, pretty much non-stop on either or both sides of the Atlantic. In particular, I published an extensive portfolio via
www.politicalgambler.com for the Republican Nominee, EU referendum and Conservative Party Leader markets.
Brexit was the highlight, both in terms of success and relatively short work. By backing a combination of a narrow Remain win (50-55%) and Leave, that portfolio earned 170 units profit.
I also made 87 units on the Republican nominee but it felt like losing as Trump was the worst result by miles. I made money from laying Jeb Bush when he was a 35% favourite, backing Ted Cruz when a 3% outsider and Paul Ryan at 0.5%, partly cashing the last two out for a nice profit. However I didn't think Trump would win and timed my cover badly.
Likewise on the Tory leadership, a mixed bag of results over a long period yielded an overall profit of 80 units. My early bets were perfect, backing Theresa May twice at 8% and 10%, Boris Johnson at 20%, and earning a profit from backing George Osborne at 11%, then laying at 33%.
However when the race started, I was blindsided by Boris Johnson's withdrawal, 24 hours after I'd placed 80 units on him. I clawed 45 of them back by getting on May again at odds-on.
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