ΒΕΤΤΙΝG NEWSLETTERS: How this tipster makes a profit despite only a 6.9% strike-rate

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Dear Friend,

One of the biggest misconceptions when it comes to understanding profitable betting is the idea that to make it pay, you need to attain a high strike-rate.

Now let might seem a strange thing to say, yet let me explain why with the help of the very profitable tipster who actually only has a 6.9% strike-rate for picking winners!

You see, this particular tipster takes a different approach to betting as he focuses on bets at an average price of 19/1.

As he explains: "One key feature of the service is that no bets are advised under 10/1 so we are looking for horses that our analysis and information suggests can run bigger races than their price suggests. At such big prices you are often going to be wrong. But the satisfaction of getting it right is enormous. When Very Wood won at 50/1 for us at the Festival, it was a great feeling."

The key quote here is "At such big prices you are often going to be wrong" which when you flip his 6.9% strike-rate around...and realise he actually loses 93.1% of the time, suddenly becomes clear!

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How Does This Tipster Win?

To figure out his edge, we need to do a simply bit of number crunching as at his average odds of 19/1, you would only need to hit a strike-rate of 5.26% to break even long-term.

And whilst his own 6.9% strike-rate is only a 1.64% increase (which sounds low on paper) it actually translates very well indeed.

Here are his profit stats over the past 7+ years backing all his bets win only:

Over 14,125 bets (He stakes 10 pts on each bet) has returned an outstanding 21,531.6 pt profit at a ROI of 15.2%. The type of results that turn a bookies stomach!

Recent SBC Reports & Magazines (click each image for full version)

Each Way Or The Highway?

What I failed to mention as regards this tipster is that he actually tips the majority of his horses each-way, which makes sense given the average odds of 19/1.

The upshot of this Each Way approach however, is that this method actually reduces his profits in comparison to betting win only. A reduction of over 4,500 pts profit and 3.2% ROI.

You might well ask yourself, why exactly does he bet each way and not win only then? It's a good question and there are 2 reasons, both 'mental' and 'mathematical' behind this.

First of all is the mental ability for punters to cope with the long losing runs that come with a 6.9% strike-rate. As this website outlines, at such a strike-rate there is a 25% chance of hitting 68 losers on the bounce. OUCH!

Most punters would certainly be struggling at that ratio.

The second point (the maths bit) comes in relation to the betting bank you need to follow him in win only. Simply put, you need more money in the bank to cover longer losing runs at a 6.9% strike-rate than at 23.4%.

So whilst your profit levels might be lower, your actual betting bank growth might be that much higher.

Tipster Results Without Context Are Meaningless

So the next time someone says "I'm a good gambler as I win 50% of the time", make sure they tell you what their average odds are...as it hitting that strike-rate and backing odds-on, they are actually losing money.

This is one of the reasons that any tipster needs to have their results judged in context and analysed properly. It is also only when compared to other tipster across some key terms, that the true story becomes apparent.

All of this is why every other month we report back on 50+ tipsters in our Profit Reports and compare them by a range of key factors.

Profits, Bank Growth, ROI, Longevity, Cost & even Profits AFTER Subscription Fees...are all examined in each Tipster Profit Report.

And if you are after good tipsters, then you could do a lot worse than the tipster above who specialises in those 19/1 shots. His record is immense over a 7 year period and he is also offering 20% off to all SBC members!

You can read his full service review (all 7 pages of it) in SBC Magazine Issue 87, which was released in late April 2014. As an SBC member you gain full access to our entire back catalogue of Magazines & Tipster Profit Reports - giving you the best shot at making money betting.

Best regards,

Peter - SBC Editor
www.secretbettingclub.com

"I think that the best investment any sports bettor who is making a serious attempt to be successful would be to subscribe to SBC then spend the first month trawling through your archives. Great service, thanks again"

Jeff (SBC Member)

How The Secret Betting Club Can Help You

If you are after dedicated, independent help with your betting then you might like to consider a full Secret Betting Club membership.

First established in May 2006, we are a 100% independent source for reporting, reviewing and monitoring the world of betting advice, through the use of tipsters, systems and strategies.

We can point you in the direction of the best tipsters, systems and methods for making money betting via our 2 regular publications...

1. Betting Magazines – Published 6 times a year, each SBC magazine features several independent tipster reviews alongside expert interviews, systems and strategies to help your betting.

2. Tipster Profit Reports – Also published 6 times a year, these unique reports contain our independent tipster ratings, including those tipsters listed in our 'Hall of Fame' and at a glance comparative league tables on over 50 different tipsters..

The great news is that all of this available for the equivalent of just £1.52 per week and with a full money back guarantee if not in any way satisfied once you joined.