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Παρασκευή 25 Σεπτεμβρίου 2015

A Profit Of £4733 & A Loss Of £3472...A Tipsters Tale

Help on how to make money betting with the Secret Betting Club.

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Although we are all interested in betting to make money....one of the key lessons every punter has to learn at some point is exactly how to lose money.

I appreciate this all might sound strange coming from a site devoted to 'making money betting' but please allow me to explain. To help me do so I will use the real-life example of a tipster that made £4773 and then promptly lost £3472 of it in no time at all...

It's Easy To Win These Days...

With such easy access to quality tipsters these days (especially those in the SBC Hall of Fame) one of the key tests for punters keen to make money betting, lies in their ability to win the psychological betting battle.

And the biggest test of this often comes in handling losers...especially when these losses arrive in close succession.

After all, the winning side of the game is fairly easy. Bet wins, you get paid. End of.

But when it comes to losses and the occasional bad losing runs, well that is when it can get trickier.

Understand The Worst, Expect The Best

It is absolutely essential that when assessing any tipster service you understand from the get-go just what the worst case scenario might well be if following them.

Too many tipsters (and I shall also say here OTHER tipster review sites) simply focus on the positives in their reviews. How much you could have made. Why you need to follow them etc..

They skirt over the bad runs and any negatives because they too are blinded by the good runs (and possibly their need to make money referring sales)

All of which can ultimately hide away some of the at times painful realities of following some tipsters. Effectively - This is the psychological battle we have to win.

Don't Be Confounded By Compounding!

To help explain this scenario at play, let me take a classic example as first published in the latest SBC magazine (Issue 94) and our review of a very promising tipping service.

On the outside looking in, this tipster has a very profitable record, having made 164.5% bank growth over the past 12 months (effectively doubling your money) from 611 proofed bets to their advised betting bank.

They have a highly unique approach as they focus at the front-end of the betting market and short-priced tips. By doing so they achieve a very high strike rate of 81.7% so more than 4 out of 5 bets go on to win.

With such a high strike-rate, this opens up the potential of what is often termed 'compound staking' or 'compounding'.

Compounding is a popular and easy staking method where you simply risk 10% of your betting bank on each and every bet. The logic is simple - as your bank grows, so should your staking and your profits. Any losers you get (roughly 1 in 5 given the strike-rate in this instance) will be easily swallowed up.

It is often touted as a great way of making big strides from your betting - sometimes far in advance of level staking.

Well that is the theory at least. Yet the practical reality is not always that simple as the stats as taken from our review will help to reveal.

A Profit Of £4733 & A Loss Of £3472

Let's consider you have followed this tipster since it began on the 24th September, investing £1000 initially via a 10% compounding staking method.

After a great run from the first 400 bets, you have turned this initial £1000 into £5773.34 - a profit of £4,773.34 as of the 19th April 2015.

But then disaster strikes...the service then starts to hit a losing run and before you know it - what was £5,733.34 has been reduced to £2,301.01!!

Still a fine profit on your initial £1000 starting point but what a rough run - losing £3472 in the space of just a few months.

My experience tells me that in this scenario most punters would not cope unless they were fully prepared for this loss and were running this compounding bank as a high risk option.

Most would walk away, throw in the towel and give up. Battle lost.

Sensible Level Stakes Punting - Less Glamorous But More Steady

The far more sensible and mild-mannered approach is to simply place the same level stakes bet and grow your bank more organically. Basically putting the same amount on each bet as per the level staking plan.

So whilst you won't get the highs of a potential huge profit (at great risk) you would actually have made more money this way as the table below reveals.

In fact you would have ultimately made a much higher profit via level stakes AND also staked a heck of a lot less!

The graph below as taken from SBC 94, showcases just how large those swings would have been if compounding versus those at level staking.

Its fair to say - compounding is a veritable rollercoaster ride!

Why Detailed Tipster Analysis Is Vital

This is just one brief example of why looking at a tipster from all angles and not simply the profits on show is so critical.

In fact, you need to look at the worst case scenarios to ensure you are fully prepared for what we may come in the future.

As a punter you also need to be realistic with your staking. The old financial investing mantra applies to betting just as it does to stocks and shares or house buying. High rewards come at high risks!

If the service features above interests you or our analysis on compounding then do check out the full review in SBC 94.

Although we do not recommend the 10% compounding bank some others do, we recommend a different approach that might well heighten your profits but significantly reduce the risks.

Equally if you are after more advice on winning the psychological betting battle, you might be interested in our special report 'How To Adopt The Mindset Of A Pro-Gambler' which is available to all SBC members.

Sign up now and gain instant access.

Best regards, Peter
SBC Editor

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Kick Off: Another big weekend in MLS playoff push | RSL take control of their Champions League destiny

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Kick Off: Another big weekend in MLS playoff push | RSL take control of their Champions League destiny

Here are the top 15 stories everyone's talking about today:

1. RSL TAKE CONTROL

Real Salt Lake grabbed an important win in the CONCACAF Champions League on Thursday, beating Santa Tecla 2-1 thanks to some smart substitutions from head coach Jeff Cassar. The win puts RSL three points clear at the top, with one final home game to be played.

2. KAKÁ’S NOT GIVING UP

The New York Red Bulls host Orlando City on Friday night (7 pm ET; UniMas in the US, MLS Live in Canada) with the Eastern Conference leaders wary of a potential upset. Orlando are the healthiest they’ve been in a while, and Kaka isn’t ready to give up on reaching the playoffs just yet.

3. GILBERTO’S RETURN

Toronto FC take on the Chicago Fire on Saturday (2 pm ET; TSN in Canada, MLS LIVE in the US) with the game marking former TFC striker Gilberto’s first trip to BMO Field since leaving last winter. Toronto FC can take another big step towards the playoffs with a win, but why are there still so many doubters? The Fire, meanwhile, are inviting fans to meet one of their all-time greats in a week’s time.

4. BIELLO ANSWERS QUESTIONS

D.C. United head to Canada fresh from securing Chris Rolfe to a new contract extension. Their opponents on Saturday are the Montreal Impact (5 pm ET; TSN2 in Canada, MLS LIVE in the US), and as Mauro Biello continues to turn around IMFC fortunes, the interim head coach took part in a Q&A with the Montreal Gazette.

5. TIMBERS GETTING TENSE

The Portland Timbers know their season is on the line, and Saturday’s visit to Columbus Crew SC (7:30 pm ET, MLS LIVE) could prove to be a massive game. Crew SC can possibly lock up a playoff place and Ethan Finlay has been crucial to that progress this year, achieving a lot in a very short space of time.

6. REVS LOOKING FOR PLAYOFF SECURITY

The New England Revolution can also secure a playoff spot this weekend when they host the Philadelphia Union (7:30 pm ET, MLS LIVE), and while the Revs showed their softer side this week, the Union and their interchangeable parts are keeping one eye on next week’s US Open Cup final.

7. CAN THE DYNAMO CONTINUE TO CLIMB?

Fresh from a 10-man win against Sporting KC, the Houston Dynamo will be hoping to knock off the Colorado Rapids on Saturday (8:30 pm ET, MLS LIVE) to help further their push for a place in the Audi 2015 MLS Cup Playoffs. Rapids fans, currently on a three-game winless streak, may be concerned by a lack of entrants on the 24 Under 24 list.

8. 'CAPS KEEN TO SPOIL PLAYOFF HOPES

New York City FC travelled with all three of their Designated Players for their game against the Vancouver Whitecaps (Saturday, 10 pm ET; TSN1 in Canada, MLS LIVE in the US). Coming off their midweek CONCACAF Champions League disappointment at the hands of the rival Sounders, the ‘Caps, two of whom are the subject of the latest MLS Insider, will be keen to dent NYCFC’s playoff hopes.

9. CAN SHORTHANDED SKC TACKLE CONFIDENT SOUNDERS?

Sporting Kansas City believe the Western Conference is more challenging than the Eastern Conference, and the US Open Cup finalists could find themselves shorthanded for their game against the Seattle Sounders on Sunday (5 pm ET; ESPN in the US, MLS LIVE in Canada). The Sounders are riding high following their CCL success, and Sigi Schmid stressed how important that momentum could be.

10. THE RETURN OF INNOCENCE?

The San Jose Earthquakes face off against Real Salt Lake on Sunday (7 pm ET; FS1 in the US, MLS LIVE in Canada) with both sides still chasing a place in the playoffs. Injured Quakes striker Innocent hopes to return in time to help the club’s playoff push but, once again, it’s the Quakes new stadium that’s capturing people’s attention.

11. PAREJA HAS A PLAN

Bruce Arena believes the US is the best place for LA Galaxy Designated Player Steven Gerrard to learn how to coach, but is Club America looking to borrow one of his other DPs this winter? The Galaxy take on FC Dallas on Sunday (9:30pm ET; FS1 in the US, MLS LIVE in Canada) and Oscar Pareja has a simple idea about how to win, although one that may not involve off-the-field leader Blas Perez.

12. SHANE O’NEILL’S MYSTERY ILLNESS

DaMarcus Beasley and Fabian Johnson are both returning from injury at just the right time to help the US national team. But one player who won’t be playing a part for the US U-23s in Olympic qualifying is Shane O’Neill, with the player himself explaining the reason why.

13. COMING TO A BIG SCREEN NEAR YOU.

Can’t make it to the CONCACAF Cup at the Rose Bowl on Oct. 10? Want to watch the match with scores of other fans in an environment bigger than a bar? Well then, how about the cinema?

14. DETROIT CITY HAS A NEW HOME

Well-supported, fourth-tier side Detroit City FC took a big step forward on Thursday, with news that they’ve been granted permission to go ahead with renovations on a new home for the club.

15. IS THE POPE A D.C. UNITED FAN NOW?

Pope Francis is currently visiting the USA. To commemorate that fact, D.C. United decided to give him a personalized jersey when he visited the nation's capital. But how did they get it to him?

MLSsoccer.com Musts

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